FAQ

How often do the indices update?

Weather and sports: every 5 minutes. Geopolitics: every minute. All real-time during market hours.

Can I trade these indices?

Not yet. Direct trading is pending. You can hedge via underlying contracts on Kalshi or Polymarket.

What cities are supported for weather?

New York City, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, Austin, Philadelphia. More cities added as Kalshi expands coverage.

Why prediction markets instead of forecasts?

Prediction markets aggregate information with real money at stake. Creates financial incentive for accuracy.

What is Market ELO?

Rolling accumulator: sum of game edges over last season. Edge = K × (result − market probability). Tracks who beats expectations.

How is geopolitics baseline calculated?

90-day exponential moving average, recalculated quarterly. Provides stable reference for gradual shifts.

What happens during market maintenance?

Kalshi: Thursdays 3-5 AM ET. Shows last value with 'Market Closed' indicator. Polymarket runs 24/7.

Can I verify the calculations?

Yes. All formulas documented here. Fetch data from Kalshi or Polymarket APIs and replicate any value.

Index value vs raw probability?

Index is normalized around a baseline (100 for geopolitics, 1000 for weather/sports) so deviations are easy to interpret.